All directly or indirectly related to the COVID-19 pandemic (referred to as “excess mortality”) from January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021, according to new estimates by the World Health Organization (WHO). The death toll was approximately 14.9 million (range 13.3 million). To 16.6 million).
“These cool data not only show the impact of pandemics, but also require investment in more resilient healthcare systems that can sustain essential healthcare services in the event of a crisis, including more powerful healthcare information systems. It also shows that there is, “says Dr. Tedros Adanom Gebreyes. WHO Secretary-General. “WHO is working with all countries to strengthen health information systems and generate better data for better decision making and better results.”
Excess mortality is calculated based on historical data as the difference between the number of deaths that occur and the number of deaths that would be expected if a pandemic did not occur.
Excess mortality includes deaths directly (due to illness) or indirectly (due to the impact of the pandemic on the health system and society) to COVID-19. Deaths indirectly associated with COVID-19 are due to other health conditions that have prevented people from accessing prevention and treatment due to an overload of the health care system due to the pandemic. The estimated number of over-deaths can also be affected by deaths avoided during a pandemic due to the low risk of certain events such as car accidents and occupational accidents.
Most of the excess mortality (84%) is concentrated in Southeast Asia, Europe, and the Americas. About 68% of mortality is concentrated in only 10 countries around the world. Middle-income countries account for 81% of the 14.9 million over-deaths in 24 months (53% in low- and middle-income countries and 28% in high- and middle-income countries), with high-income and low-income countries. Countries that account for 15% and 4%, respectively.
Estimates for 24 months (2020 and 2021) include a breakdown of excess mortality by age and gender. They confirm that the number of deaths worldwide is higher in men than in women (57% for men and 43% for women) and higher for the elderly. The absolute number of mortality is affected by population size. Excessive deaths per 100,000 show a more objective picture of the pandemic than the reported COVID-19 mortality data.
“Measuring excess mortality is an essential part of understanding the effects of a pandemic. Changes in mortality trends are the willingness to guide policies to reduce mortality and effectively prevent future crises. Provides information on decision makers. Due to limited investment in data systems in many countries, the true range of excess mortality often remains hidden, “WHO data, analysis, Dr. Samira Asma, Deputy Secretary of Delivery, said. “These new estimates are made using the best available data, using a robust methodology and a completely transparent approach.”
“Data is the foundation of our day-to-day work to promote health, keep the world safe and serve the vulnerable. We know where the data gap lies and support countries. All countries need to be collectively strengthened to track outbreaks in real time, ensure essential medical services are provided, and protect the health of the population, ”says Dr. Ibrahimasose. In the fall, Deputy Director of Emergency Response.
The production of these estimates is the result of global cooperation supported by the work of the Technical Advisory Group for COVID-19 Mortality Assessment and national consultations.
This group, jointly convened by WHO and the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), is one of the world’s leading experts in developing innovative methodologies that generate comparable mortality estimates even when data are incomplete or unavailable. It consists of.
This methodology is invaluable because many countries still lack the ability to monitor mortality reliably and therefore do not collect and generate the data needed to calculate excess mortality. Using publicly available methodologies, countries can use their own data to generate or update their own quotes.
“The United Nations system is working together to provide a reliable assessment of the global casualties lost by the pandemic. This work is being done by WHO and others to improve global mortality estimates. It is an important part of UNDESA’s ongoing cooperation with its partners, “said Liu Zhenmin, Deputy Secretary of State for Economics and Social Affairs, United Nations.
Stefan Schweinfest, Director of Statistics at UNDESA, said: The pandemic clearly reminds us of the need for better coordination of domestic data systems and the need for increased international support to build better systems, including the registration of deaths and other important events. I did. “
Note to editors:
This method was developed by the COVID-19 Mortality Assessment Technical Advisory Group, co-chaired by Professor Debbie Bradshaw and Dr. Kevin McCormack, with extensive support from Professor John Wakefield of the University of Washington. rice field. These methods rely on statistical models derived using information from countries with relevant data. This model is used to generate estimates for countries with little or no data. Methods and estimates will continue to be updated in consultation with the State as additional data becomes available.
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